Dominant Search Engines
We have recently been having an internal discussion about the relative dominance of Google over Yahoo and MSN as well as some of the other search engines. This has been an interesting debate. Following are the different perspectives of a couple of people in our office:
MB - The phrase "It would mean the end of the web as we know it" sounds ominous and foreboding, but just because the dynamics of the search industry are dramatically different than they were in 1998 is not necessarily bad. I agree that good competition between several viable search engines would be a good thing for all of us. I doubt Microsoft will become a factor. They have not been able to leverage their dominance in the desktop and browser markets into a search dominance, and their attempts to unseat Google have been feeble at best. They will probably either use their huge cash hoard to buy someone, or else use their muscle to partner with someone. Microsoft is a declining entity, and unless they truly reinvent themselves, they will no longer be as dominant as they were in the late 90's. For searching, that leaves Google and Yahoo. I think we've all predicted for some time that the nature of SEO in the future will probably be more akin to a traditional media buying function, where everything is basically real estate for the highest bidder. In the future, there won't be much in the way of "free listings". Dollar bills will win out over SEO techniques, as selling every piece of real estate will be too tempting for profit margins, even at Google. But this will take some time to play out, and there will lots of different categories of "paid listings" that won't be quite as blatant as what Overture does. Google will trend toward looking more like Yahoo and Yahoo will trend toward looking more like Google as both seek to out-do each other and grow their profits. What one does well, the other will adopt, and vice versa.
ES - MSN gets significantly more "news" searches than Google. Yahoo gets significantly more "shopping" searches than Google, despite their failed attempt with Froogle.
I don't think Google will take over. I think people are going to head different places for different reasons. Savvy B2Bs will go one place for the research part of the buying cycle, and head somewhere else when they're primed and ready to spend money. There will always be a place for free listings. Even if Google went 100% paid, there is too much money to be made by advertising for another company NOT to come along and take over by providing free, organic listings again. Many years ago, at the introduction of cable, people were screaming an end to free programming on TV. As we see now, there is room for both and, in fact, many paid cable stations have gone to free cable stations because consumers refuse to pay for what they can get FREE elsewhere. Many searchers will also go elsewhere. I don't want to search for something and get results based on who paid the most money. I want my search results to be based on relevance. Denying searchers that choice would be suicide. And Google, I'm sure, understands this.
But that's not going to stop them from using Enquiro's eye-tracking studies to position Paid advertisements in optimal positions.
As for MSN losing ground, just wait until their desktop search tool is rolled-out as an unremovable element on the desktop of every MS Windows package. The preferred business operating system isn't going to change any time soon. Another option for MSN is to include the MSN toolbar as part of the MS Explorer window. Either way, it could make their share of searches skyrocket. They just haven’t released a new version of Windows since all of this has happened.
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So, there you have it from two perspectives at Page 1 - What do you think???
MB - The phrase "It would mean the end of the web as we know it" sounds ominous and foreboding, but just because the dynamics of the search industry are dramatically different than they were in 1998 is not necessarily bad. I agree that good competition between several viable search engines would be a good thing for all of us. I doubt Microsoft will become a factor. They have not been able to leverage their dominance in the desktop and browser markets into a search dominance, and their attempts to unseat Google have been feeble at best. They will probably either use their huge cash hoard to buy someone, or else use their muscle to partner with someone. Microsoft is a declining entity, and unless they truly reinvent themselves, they will no longer be as dominant as they were in the late 90's. For searching, that leaves Google and Yahoo. I think we've all predicted for some time that the nature of SEO in the future will probably be more akin to a traditional media buying function, where everything is basically real estate for the highest bidder. In the future, there won't be much in the way of "free listings". Dollar bills will win out over SEO techniques, as selling every piece of real estate will be too tempting for profit margins, even at Google. But this will take some time to play out, and there will lots of different categories of "paid listings" that won't be quite as blatant as what Overture does. Google will trend toward looking more like Yahoo and Yahoo will trend toward looking more like Google as both seek to out-do each other and grow their profits. What one does well, the other will adopt, and vice versa.
ES - MSN gets significantly more "news" searches than Google. Yahoo gets significantly more "shopping" searches than Google, despite their failed attempt with Froogle.
I don't think Google will take over. I think people are going to head different places for different reasons. Savvy B2Bs will go one place for the research part of the buying cycle, and head somewhere else when they're primed and ready to spend money. There will always be a place for free listings. Even if Google went 100% paid, there is too much money to be made by advertising for another company NOT to come along and take over by providing free, organic listings again. Many years ago, at the introduction of cable, people were screaming an end to free programming on TV. As we see now, there is room for both and, in fact, many paid cable stations have gone to free cable stations because consumers refuse to pay for what they can get FREE elsewhere. Many searchers will also go elsewhere. I don't want to search for something and get results based on who paid the most money. I want my search results to be based on relevance. Denying searchers that choice would be suicide. And Google, I'm sure, understands this.
But that's not going to stop them from using Enquiro's eye-tracking studies to position Paid advertisements in optimal positions.
As for MSN losing ground, just wait until their desktop search tool is rolled-out as an unremovable element on the desktop of every MS Windows package. The preferred business operating system isn't going to change any time soon. Another option for MSN is to include the MSN toolbar as part of the MS Explorer window. Either way, it could make their share of searches skyrocket. They just haven’t released a new version of Windows since all of this has happened.
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So, there you have it from two perspectives at Page 1 - What do you think???
posted by Kibeth @ 12:54 PM
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